Well, I’m back from my holiday. I’ll write something about that when I can find my bloody camera’s pc cable so I can upload photos. For now, another topic.

I thought I’d write a post addressing a fairly common argument that comes up whenever piracy discussions arise on the net (ie every few days ). The assertion is that, since you cannot prove that any pirates would have bought a copy of a game if they couldn’t pirate it (since it is impossible to really prove any purely hypothetical scenario), you thus cannot conclude that piracy effects game sales. 

False.

You cannot prove anything, certainly, but you most definitely can reach a logical, legitimate conclusion via analysis of the situation. You just need to use a bit of common sense. Unfortunately, that is a resource which seems in short supply on this planet. Let’s all take a moment to consider a simple, easy to understand example : A hotdog vendor.

Imagine a hotdog stand, set up on the corner of a street. People walk past during the day, some walk right on past, uninterested, some stop and buy a hotdog because they feel hungry and the hotdogs smell good. Cool, simple to conceptualize.

Now, lets say someone acquires a magical photocopy machine, a device capable of instantly copying physical goods! Wow! This person then buys a single hotdog from the vendor, goes across the street and sets up a rival stand. Using his hotdog and the machine he can create as many hotdogs as he wants, without any expense except the initial price of one single hotdog. And, for his own reasons, this person decides to give away their hotdog clones completely for free. Now, lets apply common sense and think about what happens to the original hotdog salesman with such a competitor across the street. Yes, that is right. He is boned. Simple economic reality, unless another factor changes in this equation it is nearly impossible to compete with your exact product sold for a much lower price. 

We can all agree on that, right? This is not a hard thing to wrap your mind around. If you cannot understand this concept outright then I’d suggest you find a friend or relative, ask them to drive you to the nearest hospital so that you can be checked for severe head trauma. 

Now, at this point, your average piracy apologist will try to make the following argument : “But Gareth, if what you say is true then how come plenty of game developers survive, even thrive? Explain that Mr Smartypants! Blizzard/Braid/World of Goo!!!!”

Indeed. At this point we cannot entirely rule out head trauma for this individual but they do have a point. If the above situation was the whole story for the game industry then none would survive. Yet many do survive, plainly. So, why? Is the above an incorrect representation of piracy? No. It merely represents the absolute worst case example of piracy for a developer. There are a few other factors which can serve to lessen the negative effect of piracy, to negate it to some extent. These factors mean that the devs aren’t 100% screwed. However, these factors/piracy barriers are also temporary. They are crumbling, even now. Let’s take a look at them :

- Unaware of availability of cloned hotdogs : If someone doesn’t see the free clone stall, ie they don’t know that the option exists, they might buy a legit hotdog simply because they don’t know of another option and want one. A significant portion of games are bought by parents for their children, parents who aren’t aware of The Pirate Bay, for example.

- Unable to access cloned hotdog stand : If the cloned hotdog stand isn’t on the other side of the street, if it is in a building with access control, then people without access will not have that option available to them. In computer terms, not everyone has always-on, fast broadband. In South Africa, for example, it costs me the price of a video game per 2 gigs I download. If I were to download a 6 gig game (an average size these days) it would cost me 3 times what it would in a store. For many people this is simply out of the question, ie the option may as well not exist. Some people do have better connections and can then share the games they download with their friends but this presents some level of an “access barrier” to the piracy option.

- Convenience : If the cloned hotdog stall isn’t across the street but on the other side of town, a customer may decide it is too much bother to walk the distance and simply choose whichever hotdog vendor is nearest him when he gets hungy. Or, say the magical copying machine takes a long time to copy hotdogs. A person might decide they don’t want to wait to eat and go to the original vendor to get a hotdog right now. This is the case when a crack doesn’t yet exist for a game on shelves, a lot of people who are keenly anticipating it will buy it just to play it now. Which is why the goal of anti-piracy systems isn’t really to prevent games being cracked, it is to delay that occurance. However, this also applies in the reverse case, if the game isn’t on shelves but a cracked copy is already on the net then the pirate copy wins the convenience battle.

- Morality : If people know that the cloned hotdogs are happening at the expense of the original salesman’s livilihood, they may decide not to buy from the cloner. The problem with morality is that, if the action is considered minor enough and/or without consequences (or the consequences are hard to notice directly), many people will commit it anyway, see jay-walking and littering for examples.

A small note. I don’t include the “I bought the game to support a company I like” idea under morality. If you only abide by a principle when you really like the intended recipient then it isn’t morality, it is self-serving. If you are only nice to people you like, then you aren’t actually nice in general. Which is why so few people buy Windows, they don’t “like” Windows but it is a necessity.

- Branding/Intangibles : There is power in branding that people can positively identify with. If your brand is strong enough you inspire “brand loyalty”. People will buy brand goods because it makes them feel better about themselves somehow, whether because they want to feel superior to others (designer jeans), because they believe the brand is higher quality (designer jeans/bottled water), because something about the creation process makes them feel good about themselves (eco-friendly products) or because they feel like they are supporting a worthy cause (buying games from a favorite game company).

Ok, I think those 5 cover all bases. If we examine them we can see that, worryingly, 4 out of 5 are temporary, ie over time their strength as “piracy barriers” is weakening. Lets examine.

- Unaware of availability of cloned hotdogs : Within a handful or generations this will completely fall away. We all know how quickly kids pick up tech trends.

- Unable to access cloned hotdog stand : The pace  of technological development is staggering. Net access has gone from the privelege  of a handful to almost a standard in developed countries within my short lifetime. It will only get more pervasive. Not having permantent broadband will be like not having a telephone or TV. The exception rather than the norm.

- Convenience : Again, with the increased penetration of technology the inconvenience of finding pirated goods has dropped considerably. And will continue to drop. If anything, for many people the balance has tipped in the opposite direction. The pirate goods are more convenient. This barrier is almost non-existent in the 1st world.

- Morality : Oh, this is a nasty one. Because attitudes are viral. And, if you’ve been paying attention, the attitude that piracy is acceptable and harmless is growing like wildfire and the justifications are becoming more sophisticated, to the point that people in Sweden (filthy Swedish degenerates) have set up a political party around the idea. As things stand, many people still feel some guilt, regardless of how much the justify it. But the more pervasive these ideas get, the more ingrained they become, the weaker the feelings of guilt, the fewer people that care. If everyone is convinced that piracy doesn’t harm sales then eveyone will feel justified in pirating anything they can get their hands on. And the system will collapse.

-Branding/Intangibles : This one is probably the only barrier resistant to “decay”. Why? Because pirates don’t really have the capacity to compete at this level, nor do they really try. When you offer some great customer service or otherwise inspire “brand loyalty” in customers (like if you are an indie and people want to support indies), you are doing something the pirates cannot. However, that isn’t to say that this is the perfect solution. Branding is a positive factor that works in your favor but it is not a cure. For example, if the entire world goes into financial recession, suddenly people are pinching pennies and your product, even with a positive branding effect, simply cannot compete with the allure of “free”. 

If we consider all these factors, we see that they do not negate the impact of piracy, they simply reduce that impact. Like wearing armor, it won’t stop you taking a hit, but it may mean the difference between merely being injured/hurt and actually dying. And this is exactly what is happening in the real world when we talk about piracy. These factors are absorbing some of the “blow” of piracy, preventing the industry from collapsing. Instead, it is just hurting. But the armor is weakening…new, better armor is needed.

Ok, with that clarified, let us look at some of the other common ways that people try to explain away the negative effect of piracy. Because, by this point, we’ve eliminated the head-trauma cases and are left with the people who have at least some wit. And many turn that wit towards wiggling out of any sense of responsibility, sadly. So let’s have at it :

The White Knight Defense

If I like a game I pirate, I will buy it. If I don’t, then I will delete the pirated copy.

How many times have you heard that one eh? Me, I hear it in every thread where this topic arises. Which is really strange ’cause in real life I’ve met no such moral individual. Odd, eh? That online it would appear that the majority of pirates are so virtuous yet in the real world everyone simply takes what they can because it is there and they want it. Hmmm, how to reconcile such contradictory data?!?!?! I know. We can stop being naive. People can say anything they want online. Pay attention to the people around you, your fellow gamers at lan parties, your friends. How many of them are White Knights? Yeah, not many. This isn’t human nature. The idea that even 5% of pirates fit this mold is incredibly improbable. There may be a handful of people like this out there but I doubt it is more than a tiny fraction. But hey, who knows, perhaps tomorrow I will wake up and pigs will be flying past my window.

The Poor Man’s Defense

I don’t have the money to afford games, boo hoo.

Oh, but life is so hard, isn’t it? Able to afford the computer that can run Crysis but not the actual game itself, what a conundrum! Yeah, pull the other one. There are a range of cheaper game options, but you just have to play the latest games as they come out. It wouldn’t be fair to expect you to find cheap alternatives, or to save up money for the luxuries you want. Poor little  lamb, lets all have a pity party and you can be the guest of honour! Unless you live in Zimbabwe don’t bother trying to illicit sympathy from me on this point, the rand-dollar exchange rate is 1-10. I understand, and I understand that this excuse isn’t good enough.

The Robin Hood Defense

Publishers are bloated corporate parasites. I’m sticking it to “The Man” by not giving them money. Devs see such a tiny fraction of the end profits so I don’t really think I’m hurting them.

This person is a very special type of idiot. They think they are a “rebel” of some sort and people whose interest is primarily in making money are the enemies they are rebelling against. They are probably in possession of at least one shirt with a picture of Che Guevara on it. They are children, either physically or mentally.

They are unable to comprehend that, when a business invests vast sums of money in a creative endeavor, taking the entire burden of financial risk upon itself, that business is not the enemy of creativity. Publishers need returns on their investment to justify repeatedly investing in creative works. Creatives need people with capital willing to invest in big ideas. The fact that these investors are adverse to taking massive risks with millions of dollars is only natural. No one is forcing devs to sign deals with publishers, it is entirely voluntary, they could all give it up and make smaller indie games funded out of their own pockets. But they don’t. When you “stick it to the man”, you stick it to the people who are most able to give the next creative mind a chance, and you make them more risk averse. Good job genius. In the real world, artists and business must often dance together. You cripple the dance partner, you screw over the dance itself.

I know the idea of indies as saviors is a popular one but the fact of the matter is the ceiling of the Sistine Chapel would never have been painted if Michelangelo was funding it out of his own pocket. Remember this truth before you say stupid things, please. And take off that bloody Che t-shirt, you unintentially-ironic git.

The “Information should be free” defense!

Copyright laws are evil! For the good of society, information should be free!

When I read this I immediately know that odds are good that I’m talking to a young person, probably a teenager or someone in their early 20′s, maybe a student. You rarely find anyone who has worked for 20 years who doesn’t understand why it is better if people who produce a good are given just compensation for their works. When people have moved out from their parents and had to take on the burdens of supporting themselves they can generally understand why people need to be paid for their work. There are a few special cases where copyright laws as they stand are dangerous to the growth of society but these individuals like to use those exceptional cases as justification as to why they should have gigs of pirated movies, games and music on their harddrives. Bah on them.

Secondly, you’re a fool if you think this is about the greedy rich people vs the poor proliteriat. Places like the Pirate Bay run ads. Ads which make them money when you come to their site to download other people’s work. This is a business, make no mistake, and you are making people money. Lots of money. Just not the people who actually deserve it. For reference, Fredrik Neij, co-founder of The Pirate Bay, is listed as one of the top 30 internet millionaires under the age of 30. Good job all you freedom fighters, you’ve certainly helped fight the good fight to make sure the deserving get what is coming to them. You’re a fool if you don’t realise that piracy is big business itself, and the motives of the interests promoting it just as suspect as any “corporate”.

The “Piracy spreads awareness!” defense.

I pirated this game, and I liked it, so I bought the next game from that company. And told my friends to buy it. Piracy is like cheap advertising.

Ok, this one is a bit cleverer, I cannot resort to mere scathing sarcasm to counter it. So instead we’re going to go back to the hotdogs. What happens when a person who wasn’t really in the mood for a hotdog takes one because it is free and discovers he actually loves hotdogs? Surely this is a legitimate argument?

Well, it would be, if the free hotdog stand disappeared the next day. You see, we already have ideas like this. They are called “promotions”. This is when a store hires an attractive young woman to give away free samples of a good in the hope that people will like it and later buy more. And it most definitely works.

Except, try to imaging what would happen if, instead of giving away a free sample of, say, cheese, the busty young lass with the winning smile gave you a special card. And that card allowed you to come into the store and take as much of that cheese as you wanted for free, whenever you wanted, for the rest of your life.

Yeah, I think you get the point now. Don’t be a moron. While this might work in a handful of cases (overlapping with the handful of White Knights, no doubt), the overwhelming majorityof people will simply become aware of the option of never-ending free hotdogs. And now the legitimate producer, who may have tried to run a real promotion for their good no longer has that option open to them.

This argument also implies that it’s proponent doesn’t think that they would have found out about a game except through piracy. I challenge that. I remember when, as a kid demos were prevalent and piracy wasn’t an easy option, we found out about these games regardless. And information dissemination channels have only gotten stronger since those days. Speaking of which…

The “I wanted a longer demo!” defense.

No, really, I just wanted a longer demo! It’s not fair, I need a good demo to judge whether I will like a game! Otherwise I run the risk of buying a lemon!

Ok, seriously, there are a near infinite steam of sources of information about a game available to you to make choices about what games to buy, far more than almost any other physical product. Blogs, game review sites, forum communities… hell, I remember wanting to buy games I’d seen my friends playing when I visited them. Nowadays, about 3 hours after a game is available to play you can watch recorded play sessions on Youtube. That’s what decided me on buying Empire, Total War. Even without a demo this is no real excuse. A little bit of research is all that is required. This is a cheap justification. And it’s like saying you want movie companies to give you a free copy of a movie which you will then watch until you decide that it is good enough for you to stop the DVD and go out to watch it at the cinema. Please, pull the other one. 

The “Piracy is like a library!” defense.

Libraries lend out books. Surely that is what piracy is like, borrowing? How can you say libraries are ok but piracy isn’t? Is the only difference scale?

Partially, but the difference is also in convenience. I talked about convenience above, how if one product is dramatically more convenient to acquire than another then it holds a significant advantage. Well libraries aren’t a challenge to the book shops because of this barrier. A library will typically have 1 or a couple of copies of a book. Lent out for 2 week periods. That means about 26 people can read a book per year from a library. Most of book sale profit will probably come from selling high demand books at the time when they are in high demand. During those periods of high demand, libraries simply cannot supply the demand. Hence, they don’t provide real competition. Imagine if the torrents available to you could only supply 1-2 people per 2 week period in an area. They’d be far less damaging. Most people with disposable income would get tired of waiting in queue and just buy the thing.

And libraries also serve as lesser revenue streams. The library pays for a copy of a book, so that is a sale, and lends that book out to people who may or may not have bought the book in a store. Ie, producers trade an uncertain profit amount for a guaranteed lesser profit. Since the library cannot strongly compete with a book store even given that this is a fairly good deal. Especially since the library doesn’t take the book to an underground scanning facility and procede to copy and distribute the book to everyone on the continent! 

Personally I think this is what game producers should do for older games. Startup a GoG like service, charge people a monthly subscription fee and give them access to all titles that are a few years old. That would maximise revenue for older games which are past their peak sales point. However, note that this is a legit sales model set up by the producers themselves. Not piracy, which is operates outside the economic model.

Ok, I’m sure I’ve missed a few of the many and varied types of lame piracy defenses but I’m a bit tired now. So I’m signing off. Hopefully I will never have to hear that “But Gareth, there is no proof that piracy leads to lost sales, you’re buying the music/game industry propoganda!” argument again.

Hah! Not likely!